Modeling Study of Long-term Forecast of Annual Runoff on the Yingluoxia Station of the Heihe River
Through analyzing the flow changeable regularity on Yingluoxia station of the Heihe River, the annual runoff of the station is divided into three kinds according to frequency 25％ and 75％: plenty water year xi>55.0, medium water 42.1≤xi≤55.0, less water year xi<42.1. By figuring out the shifting frequency, it is found that the annual runoff will have all sorts of possible changes from a state to another state, but the dataset of shifting frequency will be 81.8％. Thereby changeable process of annual runoff are random and mutuality. To forecast the process, the pre-atmosphere cyclic factor and average annual flow forecasting model as well as the time series composition model of average annual flow are set up. It has a highl forecasting precision for annual runoff. Through error evaluation of the two models, it can be found that both models are top level ones. Tests show they are rather steady.
runoff forecast modeling study Heibe River
Li Xiangyang Chu Yongwei Ren Lixin
The Heihe Basin Administrative Bureau of the Yellow River Conservancy Commission, Lanzhou, 730000, C Bureau of the Upper-Reach Hydrology and Water Resources of the Yellow River Conservancy Commission,
国际会议
山东东营
英文
3-8
2007-10-16（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）