THE DOUBLE-LAYER NESTED MULTI-OBJECTIVE PROBABILITY MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE COASTS
In recent years, the frequency and intensity of the typhoon is gradually increasing on account of the global warming and sea level rise. The disasters induced by typhoon are complex, such as strong wind, huge waves, storm surge, heavy rain, floods, and so on. In 2006, typhoon Saomai and Bilis attacked the coasts of China, and caused typical wind disaster and flood disaster respectively. In this paper, considering typhoon characteristics such as the typhoon occurring frequency (λ), drop of central pressure (ΔP), radius of maximum wind speed (Rmax), typhoon moving speed (S), minimum distance between typhoon center and certain area (δ), typhoon moving angle (θ) and duration from typhoon land to dissipation (t), a new type of double layer nested multi-objective probability model is proposed for the typhoon disaster zoning and prevention criteria study along coasts of China, and the probability analysis of typhoon induced heavy rain in Zhejing Province is carried out as example. Based on the multivariate compound extreme value distribution, the joint probability of typhoon characteristics and the disasters is calculated by layer. It is shown that the new model can give more reasonable and comprehensive predicted result than traditional methods.
typhoon disaster double-layer nested multi-objective model precipitation multivari ate compound extreme value distribution
Botao Xie Defu Liu Liang Pang Yuankang Wu
Research Institute, Ocean University of China, 5 Yushan Road,Qingdao,China Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Ocean University of China, 5 Yushan Road,Qingdao,China Hydrology Bureau of Zhejiang province, 72 Yushengguan Road, Hangzhou,China
国际会议
第四届亚太地区海岸会议(the Fourth International Conference on Asian and Pacific Coasts)
南京
英文
2007-09-21（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）