LONG-TERM PREDICTION OF NAVIGATIONAL RISK FOR DESIGN OF COASTAL APPROACH CHANNELS AND HARBOR WATERS
This paper presents a new approach for long - term prediction of navigational risk regarding the possibility of ships exceeding the channel limits or navigable areas, assumed as grounding or collision with a fixed structure. The method, which is based on real time simulation results, consists of two developed models: (1) an ARMAX (Auto Regressive and Moving Average eXogenous) model is adopted to identify the ship steering dynamic system. With the help of this model, the outputs of the system (course, position, etc.) can be estimated on the basis of the system input conditions (rudder, engine, etc.); (2) the stochastic sequences of the inputs for the first model used are generated using a semi-Markov model. One implementation of the semi-Markov model for rudder actions has been described. The study used input/output measurements from a ship-handling simulator to estimate the model parameters, so the human factor has been included in the models. The method allows us to extend the results obtained from the simulator to predict future conditions of the system outputs. On the basis of the predicted results, the long- term assessment of the navigational risk can be realized, which amounts a straightforward use for optimal design of maritime engineering (e.g. coastal channels, fairways and harbor water areas).
N.M. Quy J.K. Vrijling P.H.A.J.M Gelder R. Groenveld R. Groenveld
Section of Hydraulic Engineering & Probabilistic Design, Delft University of Technology (TUDelft), S Section of Hydraulic Engineering & Probabilistic Design Section of Hydraulic Engineering & Probabilistic Design, TUDelft, Stevinweg 1,Del-ft, Netherlands Section of Hydraulic Engineering & Probabilistic Design, TUDelft,Stevi-nweg 1, Delft, Netherlands Department of Marine Traffic Engineering, Technical University of Szczecin, Waly Chrobrego 1-2,70-50
国际会议
第四届亚太地区海岸会议(the Fourth International Conference on Asian and Pacific Coasts)
南京
英文
2007-09-21（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）