Improved Forecast of Original Reliability Parameters of Power Equipment
The electric reliability evaluation is based on the analyzing and establishing of the original reliability data. according to the lack of the quantity of original reliability data and the importance of exploiting original reliability data little stylebook system to add quantity, after studying grey model, the improving grey model with establishing B matrix and forecasting method are set up. The improving method uses four pieces of newly message, make compensation for the newly and past message by introducing weight, and adopt the metabolism grey forecasting arithmetic with adding new and abandoning old message. So it reduces much calculation, adds the effection of new message and increases precision. The numerical example of newly use line of MTTF and comparing result precision between the traditional model and improving model indicates correctness ,availability and practicality of the proposed approach.
Power system original reliability data improving GM prediction
万官泉
广州供电局 510620;华南理工大学电力学院 510640
国际会议
广州
英文
2007-11-10（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）