Risk Analyses on Beijing-Tianjin High-Speed Railway Project
This paper presents the principle of completeness in the risk analyses for large infrastructure projects. To counter the situation that in current large project risk analyses there lacks a proper simulation method which satisfied this completeness principle, a new approach has been proposed. It is based on the traditional Delphi method and improved by fuzzy theory. With this method the probability distribution of change rate for each risk factor could be obtained. Then the risk simulation could be taken by using Monte Carlo method. Taking the under construction Beijing-Tianjin High-Speed Railway project as an example, this paper illustrate the detail analyses process. Several promising conclusions have been drawn with its simulation result. This paper not only provided a practical method which could be efficiently used in analyzing risk of large infrastructure projects, but also has a reference value for the similar risk analyses cases.
risk analyses fuzzy evaluation Mote Carlo method Delphi method BeiJing-TianJin High-Speed Railway
CHEN Jian YOU Wei CHEN Wei-geng
School of Management, Harbin Institute of Technology, Harbin, Heilongjiang Province P. R. China
国际会议
上海
英文
2007-09-21（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）