Research on Project Risk Evaluation Method Based on Markov Process

摘要：

The risk management is always an important point and tough subject in the project management. However, the proposal of the general project risk analysis theory provides a new idea to solve the project risk. In this paper, Markov chain in absorbable state is used in the project risk management. According to non-aftereffect of Markov process, a state transmission probability matrix is built to analyze and predict the project future development state. It also provides a quantitatively feasible method to analyze the project risk. In the end of this paper, a construction company project risk evaluation example is applied to testify the validity of this method.

关键词： Markov process project risk risk transmission

作者: Anli Sun Cunbin Li

作者单位: Institute of Business Management North China Electric Power University(NCEPU) Beijing, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 第三届IEEE无线通讯、网络技术暨移动计算国际会议

会议地点: 上海

会议语种:英文

在线出版日期: 2007-09-21（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）