Econometric Modeling of Second-hand Tanker Prices
Purchasing second-hand tankers can expand size of tanker fleet in a short termespecially for Chinese fleet, which can not satisfy the imported crude oil demand. A second-hand tanker price is an important factor in the process of the decisions to purchase of second-hand tankers. In this paper, an econometric modeling of second-hand tanker prices is constructed based on the analysis of independent variables. By the regression analysis of the second-hand prices of Aframax, Suezmax and VLCC, the model is proved to be scientific and reasonable. From the results of the model, it is found that newbuilding ships, scrap prices and time charter rate have greater effect on the determination of second-hand prices than others. All variables influence the second-hand ship prices positively, except for orderbook of new vessels /fleet number and interest rate which only affect the second-hand prices of VLCC negatively. At last, employing the model, this paper calculates the second-hand tanker prices of the three kinds of ships, and analyses the fitted value, which is preferable.
second-hand tanker prices independent variable econometric modeling
Ming Zhong Qin Shi
Department of Transportation Engineering & Logistics Dalian Maritime University Dalian , Liaoning Province, China
国际会议
2007 IEEE International Conference on Automation and Lofistics
山东济南
英文
2007-08-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）