Parameter Evaluation and Prediction in Information Poor System Using Fuzzy-Set Theory

摘要：

Based on fuzzy-set theory, a method is considered for estimating and forecasting the performance parameters of a system under the condition of unknown probability distribution and small sample. Some concepts including point estimation, interval estimation, optimal level, empirical probability distribution and confidence level are recommended. The performance prediction in the system for application is also investigated. The validity of this method is examined by computer simulation experiments under the condition of small sample and typical distributions such as normal distribution, uniform distribution, Rayleigh distribution, and unknown distribution. The confidence level is proved to be higher than 95％ via engineering experiment on noise of rolling bearings.

关键词： Random processes Poor information Empirical distribution function Small sample

作者: Xintao Xia Long Chen Yujun Xue

作者单位: College of Mechanical and Electronical Engineering Henan University of Science and Technology Luoyang, 471003, China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2007 IEEE International Conference on Automation and Lofistics

会议地点: 山东济南

会议语种:英文

在线出版日期: 2007-08-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）