The Effects and Autonomy of Monetary Policy in China from 1994 to 2004

摘要：

This paper empirically examines effects and autonomy of China’s monetary policy using vector autoregressive model (VAR) and Granger causality methodology. The preliminary results based on quarterly data from 1994 to 2004 indicates that (1) the autonomy of China’s monetary policy maintains systematically in the inspected period and (2) money stocks and interest rates do not Granger cause real GDP and CPI except M0 Granger causes CPI. The reason for the weak effectiveness of china’s monetary policy is not the exterior restriction with the old pegged exchange rate system but the internal factors which block the pipeline of monetary policy. Alternative strategies to improve the effect of monetary policy are to accelerate the reforms of thecurrent mandatory bank settlement system and perfect managerial mechanism of enterprise to enhance the sensitiveness of market agencies to policies but not abandon the policy to maintain the yuans basic stability.

关键词： Monetary Policy Autonomy Effects of Monetary Policy Granger Causality Vector Autoregression

作者: 孙华妤

作者单位: 对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院教授

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2006年中国国际金融年会

会议地点: 西安

会议语种:英文

在线出版日期: 2006-07-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）