The Effects and Autonomy of Monetary Policy in China from 1994 to 2004
This paper empirically examines effects and autonomy of China’s monetary policy using vector autoregressive model (VAR) and Granger causality methodology. The preliminary results based on quarterly data from 1994 to 2004 indicates that (1) the autonomy of China’s monetary policy maintains systematically in the inspected period and (2) money stocks and interest rates do not Granger cause real GDP and CPI except M0 Granger causes CPI. The reason for the weak effectiveness of china’s monetary policy is not the exterior restriction with the old pegged exchange rate system but the internal factors which block the pipeline of monetary policy. Alternative strategies to improve the effect of monetary policy are to accelerate the reforms of thecurrent mandatory bank settlement system and perfect managerial mechanism of enterprise to enhance the sensitiveness of market agencies to policies but not abandon the policy to maintain the yuans basic stability.
Monetary Policy Autonomy Effects of Monetary Policy Granger Causality Vector Autoregression
孙华妤
对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院教授
国际会议
西安
英文
2006-07-17(万方平台首次上网日期,不代表论文的发表时间)