Uncertainty analysis on SAGD process
Steam assisted gravity drainage process seems to be a good alternative to improve recovery of heavy oil field located in East Venezuela. The effectiveness of the process is evaluated through the construction of detailed static and dynamic model. The static model is built using stochastic approach and particular emphasis is placed on the petrophysical and sedimentological data as these parameters are considered to be the main source of uncertainty in the 3D static model. The realizations of the multimillion-cell grids are ranked according to the objective of the project. The static and dynamic ranking criteria applied to the most common configuration of SAGD process, two parallel wells. Three scenarios (P10, P50 and P90) are chosen for numerical simulation and further sensitivity analysis is carried out on the operational parameters of the SAGD process. The distance between the two horizontal wells, injection pressure, injection rates, bottom hole pressure differential and preheating period, are considered at this stage. The high dispersion of the results for prediction indicates the need to decrease the uncertainty of the model which can be reached at different levels. Suggestions include a campaign for data collection and the use of new technology for reservoir modeling. This study also shows that the most optimum operational parameters in this Eastern Venezuelan oil field are different from those presented for Canadian reservoirs where the SAGD process is widely implemented.
I. ANAYA R. PORJESZ
PDVSA CGG-EXGEO C.A.
国际会议
首届世界重油大会(The Technical Sessions of the First World Heavy Oil Conference)
北京
英文
166-181
2006-11-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）