Dynamic Analysis of Ecological Footprint and Its Forecast Based on GM(1,1) in Coal Mining Area——An Case Study of Huaibei
Ecological footprints model is a new method of measuring sustainable development in a region. Ecological footprints(EFs)and ecological capacities(ECs) were calculated from 1996 to 2005 in Huaibei by EF model and were forecasted from 2006 to 2010 by GM. The results showed that EF per capital of Huaibei increased from 1.7790 hectare in 1996 to 5. 1204 hectare in 2005 by the rate of 18.78％ per year. However, EC per capital decreased from 0.3647 hectare in 1996 to 0.3122 hectare in 2005 by the rate of 1.44％ per year. Based on the forecasting, in the future five years, the increase rate per year of EFs will add up to 8.62％, by contrast that the decrease rate per year of ECs will reach 1.43％.And ecological surplus per capital will continue enlarging, of which fossil energy land will be still the most important roots.
Ecological footprint Ecological capacity Forecasting Grey Model Huaibei Coal mining area
Song Ya-zhou Han Bao-ping
College of Environment Science and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, X College of Environment Science and Spatial Informatics, China University of Mining and Technology, X
国际会议
徐州
英文
113-118
2007-10-22（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）