RELIABILITY ASSESSEMENT AND LIFE PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDE USING BAYESIAN APPROACH
Based on review of current research of time-dependent reliability and analysis of the characteristics of landslide hazards, an idea that the bayes approach can combine natural information and epistemic information to reduce knowledge-based epistemic uncertainties.Thus, the Bayesian approach can serve as a powerful tool for information updating and provides a new solution for time-dependent reliability analysis and for investigating potential landslides. Then a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian approach is applied to spatially evaluate the aging/life of landslides. The application to the assessment and prediction of landslide life result shows that the renewal of information can be capable of capturing the deteriorating characteristics of slopes effectively and make reliability estimate of a landslide more accurate and realistic.
Landslide Deterioration Time-Dependent Life Prediction Bayesian Approach
QIANGHUI SONG DONGSHENG LIU JIE ZHANG
Dept.of Architecture & Civil Engineering, LEU of PLA, Chongqing, 400041, China Chongqing Institute of Geology & Mineral Resources Survey, Chongqing, 400039, China The Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong SAR, China
国际会议
第三届中日岩土工程研讨会(Proceedings of the 3rd Sino-Japan Geotechnical Symposium)
重庆
英文
532-538
2007-11-05（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）