Assessing and Managing Risks due to Natural Hazards
This paper presents recent developments on methodologies for the assessment and management of risks due to natural hazards. First a review is made on system characteristics commonly applied in the field of natural hazards risk management at large scale. Thereafter, a general model framework is proposed for the representation of consequences and knowledge based on recent developments within the Joint Committee on Structural Safety (JCSS). The proposed framework explicitly accounts for two significant characteristics of systems, namely indicators and conditional dependencies. This in turn suggests that when using this framework a Bayesian statistical framework for risk assessment is advantageous and it is shown how generic Bayesian risk models may be formulated to facilitate the analysis using Bayesian Probabilistic Nets (BPNs). It is outlined and discussed how the proposed model framework may be applied for risk management problems considering natural hazards at large geographical scales. Finally an example is provided on the application of the framework based on recent and ongoing research on management of risks due to earthquakes.
M.H.Faber
ETH-Zürich, Institute of Structural Engineering, Zürich, Switzerland.
国际会议
上海
英文
2007-10-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）