Displacement scenarios at site scale of rainfall-controlled slow moving active slides in stiff clays
A mixed model is proposed to compute displacement scenarios of a slide moving along pre-existing slip surfaces from rainfall scenarios. The model comprises a physically-based transient groundwater analysis of the slope and a kinematic model relating the rate of movement and the inverse of the local factor of safety in critical points along the slip surfaces. The model is calibrated and validated with reference to a well-monitored active slide in stiff clays in Central Italy. The groundwater regime of the critical section of the landslide is computed by means of a transient analysis of the pore water pressures in the slope. The local kinematic model employs a relationship between the velocity of the slide and the shear stress level acting along the slip surface that, in turn, is a function of the time-dependent pore pressures computed by the transient groundwater analysis. The model is defined as “local in that the analysis is carried out with reference to the stress state at a single point, Pslip, on the slip surface. Once calibrated and validated, the model is used as a predictive tool to evaluate displacements scenarios from three rainfall scenarios based on almost 20 years of continuous rainfall measures and representative, respectively, of a year of extremely intense rainfall, of a year of average rainfall, and of a year of minimal rainfall. Although the reliability of the predicted displacement scenarios is not probabilistically evaluated, the three scenarios may be seen as representative, respectively, of an upper boundary, an average estimate and a lower boundary of future displacements.
M.Calvello, L.Cascini, G.M.Grimaldi L.Cascini G.M.Grimaldi
University of Salerno, Fisciano (SA), Italy
国际会议
上海
英文
2007-10-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）