Quantification of vulnerability to natural hazards
Risk is recognized in both the social sciences and natural sciences as some combination of hazard, vulnerability, exposure and coping capacity. How (and which) components are defined, measured, and evaluated differs greatly between these disciplines, especially in the case of vulnerability and coping capacity. Methods in the natural sciences are generally quantitative. However, an incomplete view of vulnerability and coping capacity is provided because consideration of vulnerability is limited largely to structural fragility and fatality, while consideration of coping capacity is non-existent. Vulnerability and coping capacity are considered in broader detail in social sciences, but due to the resulting complexity qualitative methods are favoured. Risk analysis in the physical sciences could benefit from introduction of simplified and more quantitative adaptations of approaches in the social sciences. Understanding of vulnerability and coping capacity requires clear and consistent risk terminology, which is often lacking between (and within) disciplines. Critical terms related to the conceptualization of risk are identified, explicitly defined, and integrated into a detailed conceptual model of risk. Aspects related to vulnerability and coping capacity not typically addressed in the natural sciences are discussed with consideration of developments in the social sciences. With the context provided by these aspects and the conceptual risk model, a semi-quantitative conceptual framework for vulnerability and coping capacity analysis is proposed. The framework is divided into simplified components considered to holistically represent vulnerability and coping capacity of a system composed of social and physical features. Differentiation of components by theme and unit of quantification facilitates more realistic quantification of individual components. Based on the logical organization of the framework, research priorities relating to vulnerability and coping capacity are identified.
N.J.Roberts F.Nadim B.Kalsnes
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada (exchange s International Centre for Geohazards(ICG), Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway
国际会议
上海
英文
2007-10-18（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）