Future projection of household energy consumption in China to 2030 Part -1 Structure of domestic energy consumption in China
This paper consists of Parts One and Two. Firstly, in the Part One, we compared the different characteristics of energy consumption between urban and rural areas. Trends in the energy consumption in urban and rural areas from 1981 to 2003, and cross- sectional regional variance by province, are analyzed.In Part Two, future domestic (household) energy consumption in China is projected to 2030 by fuel and energy type, as well as by province, and by urban and rural areas. The purpose is to resolve several problems relating to energy and environment or economic development such as climate change, air pollution ranging from the indoor to the continental scale, acidification, energy conservation, energy resource, energy transportation, and regional development, and so on.By our estimation, Total/Urban/Rural area energy consumption in China in 2003 is 13.32/3.10/10.22 EJ capita, 36.89/17.81/54.55 GJ per household, under 12.92/5.23/7.69 billion in population, 3.61/1.74/1.87 billion households, 3.58/3.01/4.10 average household size. Continuously increasing effective energy (which is derived from the actual energy consumption multiplied by an assumed efficiency) demand per capita rose from 1.55 GJ in 1981 to 2.92 GJ in 2003. A 2.9 percent annual growth was observed in urban areas whilst, in contrast, in rural areas the trend over the two decades from 1981 to 2000 was flat, with no increase observed before 2000 and an average of 3.25 GJ. However, since then, it has increased to 3.85 GJ in 2003 with an annual growth rate of 5.4 percent. Regionally, in cold northern areas, energy consumption is high,with much coal used in urban areas and much bio-fuel from agricultural residues used for space heating, cooking and hot water supply in rural areas. In urbanized area such as Beijing and Tianjin, per capita energy consumption is also high, with much city gas and district heat used because of high dispensable incomes. In southern areas there is no space heating demand but electricity use for space cooling is large. Based on this analysis of the present conditions, the future projection study in Part Two has been undertaken
Energy - Consumption Climate - Change Household Residential - House Domestic - Sector China
Yutaka TONOOKA Yadong NING
Saitama University Faculty of Economics, Department of Social Environmental Planning, and Imperial C Saitama University Faculty of Economics, and Dalian University of Technology., China
国际会议
哈尔滨
英文
98-103
2007-01-15（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）