An Effective Method of Preventing Power Grid Collapse: Peak Load Analysis and Forecasting

摘要：

In electric system, peak load analysis and forecasting play a very important role in preventing widespread blackout or collapse. Accurate of peak load forecast method is helpful in developing a power supply strategy,and developing a power shortage strategy, especially for China the demand is increased with dynamic and high growth rate. In this paper propose two methods for power peak load detection, mining and forecasting based on improved grey forecasting and a novel neutral networks model. It incorporates the characteristic of high level load and peak load analysis with optimum forecasting algorithm based on neutral networks. The validity of the method is proved by real data calculation.

关键词： Electric System Collapse Load Analysis Peak Load Forecast.

作者: Jianzhou Wang Wu Liang Hongsuo Liang Huiting Wang

作者单位: School of mathematics & statistics, Lanzhou university, Lanzhou 730000, P.R.of China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The Second International Workshop on Information Systems for Crisis Response and Management(ISCRAM CHINA 2007)(第二届国际危机响应与管理信息系统中国研讨会)

会议地点: 哈尔滨

会议语种:英文

页码: 551-558

在线出版日期: 2007-08-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）