MEDIUM-LONG TERM LOAD FORCASTING BASED ON IMPROVED GREY MODEL

摘要：

Grey forecasting is the method that forecasts the system with uncertain factors through grey theory.This paper presents an improved grey model (GM) algorithm for the medium-long term load forecasting, from which, the optimal parameter is decided by association analysis of historical data.Meanwhile, the method possesses far superior forecast precision through using residual revision and filling innovation.In the article, the authors offer the detailed calculating steps of this method which can be proved that such an algorithm may lead to high performance through experiments conducted on a real power system.

关键词： Electric power system Load forecasting Grey model Residual revision Association

作者: SHUO-HE WANG JIAN-RU WAN YU-JIAN CHANG CHENG-CAI CAI

作者单位: School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, P.R.China;Depar School of Electrical Engineering and Automation, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, P.R.China Departments of Electrical Engineering, Shijiazhuang Railway Institute, Shijiazhuang 050043, P.R.Chin

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2007 International Conference on Machine Learning and Cybernetics(IEEE第六届机器学习与控制论国际会议)

会议地点: 香港

会议语种:英文

页码: 2520-2524

在线出版日期: 2007-08-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）