Has the Period from Invention to Large-scale Production of Breakthrough Technologies Changed?
Has the period from the invention of breakthrough technologies up to the start of the large scale production of products on the basis of these technologies shortened or not over the last 150 years? This period is extremely important yet uncertain for companies. Some pioneering companies manage to dominate the market for a long period, whereas other companies demise before their technology becomes a success. Fifty-three cases of breakthrough technologies, invented between 1837 and 1998, are investigated. After removing two outliers, the period from invention to large-scale production lasts 16 years on average, but varies considerably for individual cases. No proof for the shortening of this period over time is found. The resources devoted to research and development in different fields of expertise may have increased but the lengths of individual technological trajectories have not shortened accordingly. The results imply that strategies to cope with the uncertainty in the period after the invention of a breakthrough technology are very relevant.
J. R. ORTT P. KROMHOUT
Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands Ortec The Netherlands
国际会议
The Fifth InternationalSymposium on Management of Technology(ISMOT07)(第五届技术与创新管理国际研讨会)
杭州
英文
389-393
2007-06-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）