Investment Analysis and Evaluation on Emerging Technology Projects through Cross-entropy and Real Option Methods

摘要：

Because of the high uncertainty of technology, the success/failure of an emerging technology product cannot be evaluated only by its output or size of market. In this paper, a cross- entropy method is introduced to evaluate the success/failure and the probability of success of each emerging technology product. Based on this, the forecasting cash flows are adjusted as reliable expect values, and the investment analysis of venture capital is expounded through a real option approach finally. This paper provides a new and applicable tool for the emerging technological investors.

关键词： Venture Capital Emerging Technology Cross-Entropy Real Options

作者: HE Yinglong ZHOU Zongfang

作者单位: School of management, University of Electronics Science and Technology, Chengdu, Sichuan, P.R.China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The Fifth InternationalSymposium on Management of Technology(ISMOT07)(第五届技术与创新管理国际研讨会)

会议地点: 杭州

会议语种:英文

页码: 1257-1260

在线出版日期: 2007-06-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）