Predication of Patent Applied Structure Based-on GM(1,1) Model: A Empirical Study from Liaoning
The patent is the core of the country or regional scientific and technological assets, the amount of the patent can reflect the primitive innovation ability of the country or region, and it is also the key index in measuring the comprehensive strength of a country or region. It is of realistic significance to analyze and forecast the structure of the patent applied so that it can provide the information support for the upgrading and optimization of Liaonings patent structure. This paper aimed to analyze the present situation and development tendency of Liaonings patent applied structure. In this paper the author advanced a compositional data predictive method to analyze the dynamic features of each composition in a pie chart, and forecast the patent applied structure of Liaoning province from 2005 to 2010 by using this method combining with the model establishment of grey system. It could effectively solve the question that the sum of the forecast value of every share does not equal to 1 by using traditional forecast method, which would get more extensive applied in the field of society, economy and technology, etc. The results indicated that the change of structure of patent applied would be not very obvious in Liaoning province. The utility patents would be still the main composition in the all patents. But it would be reducing slowly, from 64.8％ in 2005 to 58.8％ in 2010. The proportion of invention patent and design patent would increase slowly, from 16.4％, 18.7％ to 21.8％ and 19.4％ separately. The newest statistical data in 2006 showed that, the proportion of the three kinds of patent applied as fellow: utility patent applied was 63.5％, invention patent applied was 17.5％, and design patent applied was 19.0％. The forecast result extremely coincides with the actual situation.
Dimensionality deduction Patent applied structure Forecast Model GM(1,1)
LIU Fengchao SHI Dingguo PAN Xiongfeng
Department of Economics, Dalian University of Technology
国际会议
The Fifth InternationalSymposium on Management of Technology(ISMOT07)(第五届技术与创新管理国际研讨会)
杭州
英文
1510-1513
2007-06-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）