Adaptive a Statistical Transmission Model of Avian Influenza for Outbreak Prediction in Human
Highly pathogenic influenza A (H5N1) viruses are now pandemic in the world. Currently, there are reported cases of Disease under Surveillance of influenza A in human (DSA) by date of onset by province in Thailand. In this paper, we adapt a statistical transmission model of avian influenza illustrating the probabilistic dependencies number of the reported case DSA everyday for the entire region on the incidence of avian influenza. We consider the factors are temperature, vaccination effective and time that effect the outbreak of avian influenza. Our simulation is able to prediction the outbreak according avian influenza situation in Thailand.
Prapaphan Prawing Anongnart Srivihok
Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Science, Kasetsart University, Bangkok, Thailand
国际会议
杭州
英文
154-156
2007-06-06（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）