Forecasting Iron ore Consumption in China

摘要：

An iron ore consumption forecasting model is formulated with consideration of the iron and steel making process and the growth curve of steel production in China. GDP is used as an explanatory variable in the growth curve model. The iron ore consumption from 2006 to 2010 is forecasted at different levels of Chinas peak steel production, and iron to steel ratios. The iron ore consumption will rise from 726.19 million tons in 2004 to between 880.59 and 1066.30 million tons in 2010 under the low and high growth scenario used in this paper. The difference between these forecasts highlights the sensitivity of iron ore consumption to iron to steel ratio, and peak steel production. To reduce Chinas reliance of steel production on iron ore, China needs to use more steel scrap rather than iron.

关键词： China Iron ore consumption Prediction Steel production

作者: LIU Tie-min ZHAI Qing-guo

作者单位: School of Business and Economics, Liaoning University of Petroleum and Chemical Technology, P. R. China, 113001

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: The 2007 International Symposium on Safety Science and Technology(2007采矿科学与安全技术国际学术会议)

会议地点: 河南焦作

会议语种:英文

页码: 2679-2684

在线出版日期: 2007-04-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）