Application of System Dynamics Model in Control of Over-Increasing Medical Care Expenditure
Objective Nowadays rising health costs make many families facing economic distress, andthe difficulty of getting medical treatment becomes a prominent social problem in China.The present study aimed to provide constructive reference and the feasibility of approach to reduce medical expense burden and solve the problem of the difficulty in seeing a doctor and the high cost of getting a treatment.Methods Stakeholders theory and Mitchell score-based approach were used to ascertain the interest groups of over-increasing medical care expenditure system.Qualitative and quantitative mechanism models were applied to demonstrate the formation mechanism of the system.Modeling technique of system dynamics was utilized to construct SD model and build policy experiment platform of medical care expenditure system.The data used in the study was collected mainly from official statistics, such as China Statistical Yearbook, China Population Statistics Yearbook and health accounts funding information.Results The final professional model was confirmed to be accepted and reasonable by dimensional consistency test and historical validation.The total professional income tending to rise yearly will reach 72419.0billion yuan in 2021 and fee per time paid by patients themselves will be around 1456.0yuan.Strategies, such as increasing the govemment investment or bumping up operating income yield, could effectively control the rapid increase of the medical expense;the change of fee per time caused by financial investment adjustment was 1.03-2.38 times more than medical insurance function, while the effect of yield change was 1.18-1.42 times as great.Conclusions System dynamics model analysis could simulate the dynamics of medical care expenditure system.The high speed growth and its damage in the absence of government intervention were revealed by means of predicting the future development of medical expense.Strategies such as increasing the government investment or bumping up operating income yield could effectively control the rapid increase of the medical expense by policy intervention experiment in this study.The results verified that it is of good feasibility and practicability of system dynamics model analysis in the study of medical care expenditure.
Health costs Mechanism Control System dynamics
Tianjiao Yang Yanbing Zeng Ya Fang
国内会议
天津
英文
39-65
2016-07-26（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）