Prediction of short-term mortality after valve surgery---a perspective from east China
Objective: To identify risk factors and develop multivariate prediction model for short-term mortality after valve surgery in east China.Methods: 1254 patients undergoing valve surgery from January 2014 to December 2015 in a single hospital were included.The included patients were observed for 30 days and a multivariate logistic regression analysis was undertaken to identify independent risk factors for short-term mortality.A prediction model was developed with independent variables according to multivariate logistic regression for patients in east China.The receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve was performed to verified reliability of the model.Results: A total of 25(2.0%)short-term deaths were recorded.Six preoperative independent variables were identified had relative connection with short-term mortality including NYHA 4(OR=9,72,P=0.001),smoking history(OR=3.33,P=0.006),poor ejection fraction(OR=5.43,P<0.001),previous cardiac surgery(OR=9.72,P=0.001),moderate or severe tricuspid regurgitation(OR=2.85,P=0.016),concomitant CABG(OR=4.94,P=0.013).On the basis of these variables,a prediction model was built.The ROC of the model was 0.80.Conclusion: Independent risk factors of short-term mortality of patients undergoing valve surgery were identified.Based on multivariate logistic regression analysis,we built a preoperative risk assessment model of short-term mortality for the population of east China.This model can help the surgeons to quantitatively evaluate surgical risk for patients with heart valve disease.
Liangwei Chen Junnan Zheng Jie Chen Yiming Ni Haige Zhao
国内会议
浙江湖州
英文
1-11
2016-08-05（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）