Grey GM(1,1)Power Pharmacokinetics Model Coupling Self-memory Principle of Dynamic System
As for the approximate single-peak sequences or fluctuating sequences under saturated condition in human body pharmacokinetics,a novel self-memory GM(1,1)power coupling prediction model is put forward to expand the applicable range of grey prediction model and promote its predictive performance.It has achieved organic coupling of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and conventional GM(1,1)power model.The conventional grey prediction model”s weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle.As shown in the illustrative example of serum concentration prediction,the proposed coupling prediction model can take full advantage of the systematic multi-time historical data and prominently possesses superior predictive performance compared with the conventional GM(1,1)power model.It is suitable for predicting data sequences characteristics of single-peak or saturation.This work makes signifigant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span.
grey prediction theory GM(1,1) power model self-memory principle coupling prediction model serum concentration
Xiaojun Guo Sifeng Liu Zhigeng Fang
School of Science,Nantong University,Nantong,Jiangsu 226007;College of Economics and Management,Nanj College of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 21110
国内会议
武汉
英文
2-11
2016-04-22（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）