Prediction of China”s Coal Consumption in the Twelfth Five-Year-Plan Period--Based on Markov Transition Matrix and Its Modified Model

摘要：

　　A prediction is made concerning China”s total energy consumption from 2011 to 2015 based on unconstrained and constrained programming respectively,satisfying the condition that the overall energy consumption is to be controlled under 4.1 billion tons of standard coal and new energy will account for 11.4%of the total till 2015.Then,the prediction of China”s energy consumption structure in the same period with and without constraints is followed by employing Markov transition matrix and its correction model.Finally,the coal consumption is predicted and further compared between the one with constraints and that without constraints.

关键词： coal consumption Markov transition probability matrix prediction

作者: Aiwen ZHAO Ying HE Jieyun WEI Dong LI

作者单位: School of Economics,Xuzhou Institute of Technology,221008 School of Food Engineering,Xuzhou Institute of Technology,22111 School of Economics and Management,Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics

会议类型: 国内会议

会议名称: 第28届全国灰色系统学术会议

会议地点: 武汉

会议语种:英文

页码: 85-95

在线出版日期: 2016-04-22（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）