A study of effects of marine development plan on the Chinese economy: a computable general equilibrium approach
Based on the suggestions made by the Report on the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China that China should enhance its capacity for developing marine resources, safeguarding China”s maritime rights and interests, and building China into a marine power country and that the development of Marine economy is the key for China to realize its goal of the maritime strategy, the State Council, China”s cabinet, has approved a plan for the Zhejiang Marine Economic Development Demonstration Area, which means that construction of the economic zone has become a State-level strategy.Given the public good nature of the economic zone, it is suggested that an evaluation of potential economic effects of the economic zone be made from the viewpoint of the national economy.In addition, it is of great importance to evaluate its economic effects from the global point of view, because China strives to become a marine power country through building the economic zone.This study aims to make a quantitative assessment of potential economic impacts of the Zhejiang Marine Economic Development Demonstration Area consisting of seven cities such as Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, Jiaxing, Shaoxing, Zhoushan and Taizhou using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model.Two groups of scenarios are developed to characterize two aspects of the Zhejiang Marine Economic Development Demonstration Area.One is about investment scenario for the Zhejiang Marine Economic Development Demonstration Area, which models the economy-wide effects arising from the investment stimuli to improve the marine capacity.The other is a scenario of a reduction in freight rates that models the outcome of the improved capacity, namely lower port costs, arising from the marine development.The results support the economic significance of the Zhejiang Marine Economic Development Demonstration Area as a means of promoting economic growth and trade in China.In more detail, macroeconomic effects of the development of the Zhejiang Marine Economic Development Demonstration Areaare presented in terms of real GDP, welfare, total exports, total imports and trade balance.Microeconomic effects are shown in terms of domestic production by sector.
Zhejiang Marine Economic Development Demonstration Area economic impact analysis a global computable general equilibrium model economic growth trade industry output
Jong-Hwan Ko
Division of International and Area Studies Pukyong National University, Busan, Korea
国内会议
杭州
英文
54-71
2013-05-13（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）