The Research on the Value of RMB Based on Markova and GM Model
The value of RMB has been debated since the day China stepped into the WTO.But not so much attention has been aroused as today from home and abroad.As it is universally known,the value of a certain currency is not a concept of concrete,butabstract.In general International way,the value of a certain currency is evaluated by the currency exchange rate between countries.In this paper,we employ the currency exchange rate between china and U.S to evaluate the value of RMB.In order to get a better result,GM (1,1) modeis built to predict the value of RMB.GM (1,1) model is based on the existing data of currency rate,with the fitting method to get the estimated function in trend.Then employ the definition of Markova state space to divide the original space into more specific spaces.Finally get the prediction in short terms.By the end of this paper,we analyze the reliability and stability of the model.
Markova GM model RMB Exchange Rate
Zhang Henxin
Northeastern University College of Science Probability and Statistic 2013 Master Liao Ning,Shen Yang,110004
国内会议
第十二届中国不确定系统年会暨第十六届中国青年信息与管理学者大会
香港
英文
380-384
2014-07-27（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）