BCC第二代季节预测模式对亚洲夏季风的回报检验
This study provides a comprehensive assessment of Asian summer monsoon prediction skill as a function of lead time and its relationship to sea surface temperature (SST) prediction using the seasonal hindcasts of the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 with moderate resolution ”BCC_CSM 1.1 (m)”.For the South and Southeast Asian summer monsoon,reasonable skill is found in the model”s forecasting of certain aspects of monsoon climatology andspatiotemporal variability. Nevertheless, deficiencies such as significant forecast errors over thetropical westem North Pacific and the eastem equatorial Indian Ocean are also found. In particular,overestimation of the connections of some dynamical monsoon indices with large-scale circulationand precipitation pattems exists in most ensemble mean forecasts, even for short lead-timeforecasts.
夏季风 季节预测模式 检验效果
刘向文 吴统文 李巧萍 程彦杰 梁潇云
国家气候中心,北京,100081
国内会议
北京
中文
63-63
2015-03-12（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）