Carbon Emission Peaking Scenarios in China Around 2030 Based on Integrated Assessment Model IAMC
China is currently facing various social and environmental problems,and the solutions requires new vision and ideas,whether economic transformation and decarbonization are expected to process as radical or incremental reforms need robust studies and practical demonstrations.China recently declared the target of emission peaking around 2030,and this study explores such pathways in China beyond 2020,especially modeling the major target choices of carbon emission peaking in China by an integrated assessment model IAMC based on carbon factor theory.Here four scenarios derived from the developed countries” historical pathways and our national circumstances are developed to assess the comprehensive impacts on economy,energy and climate security for the greener development in China,and proposed the appropriate policy recommendations.The findings suggest that the period of 2025 to 2030 is the window of opportunity to achieve the carbon emission peaking at a level below 12 Gt CO2 and 8.5 tons per capita by reasonable trade-offs from economy growth,annually -0.2% average and cumulatively -3% deviation to BAU in 2030.The oil and natural gas import dependence will exceed 70% and 45% respectively then while the non-fossil energy and electricity share increase to above 20% and 45%.Meantime,the electrification level in end use sectors will increase substantially and the electricity-energy ratio approaching 50%,the labor and capital productivity should be double in improvements and the carbon intensity drop by 65% by 2030 compared to the 2005 level,and the cumulative emission reductions are estimated to be more than 20 Gt CO2 in next 15 years.
emission peaking energy cap integrated assessment
CHAI Qimin XU Huaqing
National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing, 100038, China;Re National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation, Beijing, 100038, China
国内会议
广州
英文
1-17
2015-05-23（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）