Use of generalized additive model to investigate key abiotic factors affecting microcystin cellular quotas in heavy bloom areas of Lake Taihu
Lake Taihu is the third largest freshwater lake in China and is suffering from serious cyanobacterial blooms with the associated drinking water contamination by microcystin (MC) for millions of citizens.So far, most studies on MCs have been limited to two small bays, while systematic research on the whole-lake is lacking.To explain the variations in MC concentrations during cyanobacterial bloom, a large-scale survey at 30 sites across the lake was conducted monthly in 2008.The health risks of MC exposure were high, especially in the northern area.Both Microcystis abundance and MC cellular quotas presented positive correlations with MC concentration in the bloom seasons, suggesting that the toxic risks during Microcystis proliferations were affected by variations in both Microcystis density and MC production per Microcystis cell.Use of powerful predictive modeling tool named generalized additive model (GAM) helped visualize significant effects of abiotic factors related to carbon fixation and proliferation of Microcystis (conductivity, dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) , water temperature and pH) on MC cellular quotas from recruitment period of Microcystis to the bloom seasons, suggesting the possible use of these factors, in addition to Microcystis abundance, as warning signs to predict toxic events in the future.The interesting relationship between macrophytes and MC cellular quotas of Microcystis (i.e., high MC cellular quotas in the presence of macrophytes) needs further investigation.
Microcystins MC cellular quotas Generalized additive model Environmental factors Carbon fixation Health risks Lake Taihu
Min Tao Ping Xie Jun Chen Boqiang Qin Dawen Zhang Yuan Niu Meng Zhang Qing Wang Laiyan Wu
Donghu Experimental Station of Lake Ecosystems,State Key Laboratory of Freshwater Ecology and Biotec Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Nanjing 210008,P.R.China
国内会议
广西北海
英文
61-77
2013-10-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）