IMPROVING FORECASTING ACCURACY BY COMBINING STATISTICAL AND JUDGMENTAL FORECASTS IN TOURISM
Even though judgmental forecasting has been exercised in many tourism businesses as a routine and on an informal basis, limited research has been done in assessing the benefits in combining the judgmental and statistical forecasts in the tourism forecasting literature. It has been generally accepted that both judgmental and statistical methods have their own unique strengths in tourism forecasting. Past studies concluded that no single model or method outperforms others on all forecasting occasions (Song & Li, 2008). A number of empirical studies found that judgmental forecasts are expected to be superior in dealing with trending series over statistical methods (Goodwin, 2002), while others suggest that the performance of the statistical forecasts depends on error measurements used for comparison.
Forecast combination Tourist arrivals Forecasting performance
Shanshan Lin Haiyan Song
School of Hotel and Tourism Management The Hong Kong Polytechnic University
国内会议
海口
英文
49-51
2011-10-23（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）