A Dynamic Traffic Flow Forecast Model

摘要：

In this paper，we propose an approach for forecasting traffic flow，which employs first a double exponential smoothing(DES)model to predict thefuture datum．Then，the DES model is used again for making a residual correction scheine．Furthermore，a Markov forecast model is adopted to construct aforecast trend adj ustment scheme．Smoothing parameters of the DES model is determined by using the genetic algorithm and the gradient descent algorithm．TheDrediction model is applied to forecasting the traffic flow of Shiji Route in ZiboCitv，the forecast resuIts of proposed model are compared with that of ARIMA．

关键词： Traffic Flow Forecast Double Exponential Smoothing Markov Chain GA/Gradient Descent Algorithm

作者: CAO Kai ZHAO Mo

作者单位: Shandong University of Technology,Zibo City,255049

会议类型: 国内会议

会议名称: 第一届中国智能交通年会

会议地点: 上海

会议语种:英文

页码: 3-10

在线出版日期: 2005-12-09（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）