Contributions of natural climate changes and human activities to the trend of extreme precipitation
This study focuses on the analysis of the nonstationarity characteristics of extreme precipitation and their attributions in the southeastern coastal region of China.The maximum daily precipitation(MDP)series is extracted from observations at 79 meteorological stations in the study area during the first flood season(April-June)from 1960 to 2012,The trends of the mean(Mn)and variance(Var)of MDP are detected using the Generalized Additive Models for Location,Scale,and Shape parameters(GAMLSS)and Mann-Kendall test.The contributions of natural climate change and human activities to the Mn and Var changes of MDP are investigated using six large-scale circulation variables and emissions of four greenhouse gases based on GAMLSS and a contribution analysis method.The results demonstrate that the nonstationarity of extreme precipitation on local scales is significant.The Mn and Var of extreme precipitation increase in the north of Zhejiang,the middle of Fujian,and the south of Guangdong.In general,natural climate change contributes more to Mn form 1960 to 2012 than to Var,However,human activities cause a greater Var in the rapid socioeconomic development period(1986-2012)than in the slow socioeconomic development period(1960-1985),especially in Zhejiang and Guangdong.The community should pay more attention to the possibility of extreme precipitation events and associated disasters triggered by human activities.
Nonstationarily Precipitation Trend Climate change Human activity Risk
Lu Gao Jie HuangXingwei Chen Ying Chen Meibing Liu
Institute of Geagraphy,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou,China;College of Geographical Science,Fujian College of Geographical Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou,China;Institute of Geagraphy,Fujian
国内会议
厦门
英文
306-315
2019-06-01（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）