Supply Chain Financing Risk Measurement of Small and Micro Enterprises Based on Logistic-Copula Model
The financing risk measurement and monitoring of small and micro enterprises(SME)is one of the key problems that plague SME,The main reasons for the difficulty of measuring and monitoring the financing risk of SME are as following:(1)Construction of risk measurement index system,(2)Risk measurement Model building.Firstly,establish SMEs supply chain financing risk index database,by the F-value method and logistic regression model based on partial correlation analysis,the indexes with larger correlation and lower significant correlation were eliminated,the risk measurement index system was constructed.Then,the Logistic regression model is used to construct the financing risk measurement model of a single enterprise and calculates the default probability value.Finally,the Copula related structure model of the supply chain is used to calculate the probability of financing default risk.The research shows that the probability of financing default risk of SME is much smaller than the probability of financing default risk of single enterprise.The overall correlation of supply chain financing can effectively reduce the default risk of single enterprise financing.The financial institutions can measure and monitor the financing risks of a single enterprise in light of the overall operation of the supply chain.
logistic regression copula function supply chain financing risk measurement
Wu Huiyong David Lai Mayor Cui Nick Du
Department of Mathematics and Physics,Shenyang University of Chemical Technology,Shenyang,China
国际会议
西安
英文
531-540
2018-09-21（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）