An Integrated Modeling Framework to Understand Agricultural Land-Use Changes at a Global-scale
This paper presents an integrated agricultural land-use change model to simulate past and future dynamic changes in sown areas for four major crops at a global scale.This modeling approach,including four core models,was developed under the framework of Action-in-Context (AiC).The crop choice decision model,a Multinomial Logit model was used to model the crop choice decisions among a variety of available alternatives by using a crop utility function.A crop yield model,the GIS-based EPIC model was adopted to estimate the potential yields of different crop types under a given biophysical and agricultural management environment.A crop price model,the IFPSIM model was utilized to evaluate the price of the test crops in the international market.An urban expansion model was constructed to examine the characteristics of urban land expansion and the consequent cropland loss,and to dynamically update the total percentage of land available for agricultural land use.These models were seamlessly linked through data flow and exchange between them,and the dynamic feedback loop between agricultural land-use change and biophysical and socio-economic driving factors was studied.Empirical validation for the model conducted after model construction indicated the reliability of the model for addressing the complexity of current agricultural land-use change and its capacity for investigating long-term scenarios in the future.
Sown area change modeling crop choice decision yield global scale
WU Wenbin YANG Peng TANG Huajun ZHOU Qingbo Shibasaki Ryosuke
Key Laboratory of Resources Remote Sensing & Digital Agriculture,Ministry of Agriculture,Beijing 100 Center for Spatial Information Science,University of Tokyo,Tokyo 153-8505,Japan
国际会议
Woekshop on Agricultural Land Use and its Effect in APEC Member Economies(APEC地区农业土地利用及其影响国际研讨会)
北京
英文
18-35
2009-10-19（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）