National Energy Security Early-warning Pattern Design and Simulation Analysis based on CAS

摘要：

The current rising international oil price has enhanced the energy cost large scale which the Chinese economy grew,and the issue on national energy security has become the subject which the Chinese government and the societypaid attention highly.Obviously national energysecurity system has characteristics ofmultitudinous influence factor,strongrelationship between variables and existingmutual game phenomena.Complex adaptivesystem theory provides a new mentality andpoints out a new direction for us to analyze thiskind of question.On the base of appraisingtheory of complex adaptive system,a new early-warning paradigm based on CASREPAST(one kind of research tools of CAS)modeling for national energy security early-warning,has been proposed.After analyzing theimplication and characteristic of national energysecurity early-warning,the paper has proposedto simulate the actual movement situation ofnational energy system utilizing modelingmethod of complex adaptive system,and hasintroduced this simulation activity in the early-warning research of national energy security,then has established the framework of early-warning system of national energy securitybased on complex adaptive system.Finally thefurther research work has been pointed out.

作者: Fang Shuqiong Yang Baoan Yu Yin

作者单位: Glorious-Sun School of Business and Management,Donghua University,Shanghai,200051,China Fang Shuqion Glorious-Sun School of Business and Management,Donghua University,Shanghai,200051,China School of Management,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou,Zhejiang,310058,China

会议类型: 国际会议

会议名称: 2008 3rd International Conference on Intelligent System and Knowledge Engineering(第三届智能系统与知识工程国际会议)(ISKE 2008)

会议地点: 厦门

会议语种:英文

页码: 646-649

在线出版日期: 2008-11-17（万方平台首次上网日期，不代表论文的发表时间）